Bitcoin whales raise BTC call options to $100K in expectations of a new rally when Trump takes office on Jan. 20
Bitcoin (BTC) is capturing the attention of market participants as significant whale activity signals bullish expectations tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. On Saturday, Amberdata revealed that a trader on Deribit spent over $6 million to secure $100,000 strike call options set to expire on March 28.
According to reports cited by the blockchain analytics platform Amberdata, the surge in whale activity reflects broader market sentiment, with traders also heavily favoring $120,000 strike call options.
BTC Options Trade Worth Over > $6M 💰
— Amberdata (@Amberdataio) January 3, 2025
A trader spent over $6,000,000 on March 28, 2025, 100k calls!
This trade anticipates that new highs for Bitcoin will be broken just a few months after Trump officially takes office.
Source: AD Derivatives @genesisvol… pic.twitter.com/OPL6b7bxNp
The $120,000 option currently holds the highest notional open interest on Deribit, totaling $1.52 billion. Amberdata noted on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin is anticipated to surpass its all-time high within months following Trump’s official swearing-in.
Call options echo positive market sentiment
Call options grant buyers the right, but not the obligation, to purchase an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date. According to market analysts, their popularity often signals a bullish market outlook.
“The inauguration and its aftermath present a unique window for policy announcements that could serve as bullish catalysts for Bitcoin,” said Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, in a recent newsletter. However, he cautioned that delays or shifts in anticipated policy frameworks could inject short-term volatility into the market.
Bitcoin’s recent price action adds weight to these expectations. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin climbed above $99,500 on Monday, reflecting an 8% recovery from its December 30 low of $91,384.
According to data from LookOnChain, the largest crypto’s recent price recovery is accompanied by notable accumulation activity from whales and institutions. Two newly created wallets collectively withdrew 261 BTC, valued at approximately $25.9 million, from Binance earlier today.
Bitcoin reclaims $99K!
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 6, 2025
Whales and institutions are accumulating $BTC.
2 fresh wallets withdrew 261 $BTC($25.9M) from #Binance today.
Kulr Technology(@KULRTech) received 213.4 $BTC($21.09M) from #CoinbasePrime 2 hours ago and currently holds 430.6 $BTC($42.71M).… pic.twitter.com/g5S0jDuXSw
Meanwhile, Kulr Technology, a US-based energy management company, received a transfer of 213.4 BTC (worth $21.09 million) from Coinbase Prime a few hours ago, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 430.6 BTC, valued at $42.71 million.
Market analysis highlights diverging signals
The excitement surrounding Bitcoin call options coincides with other optimistic signals in the cryptocurrency market. Deribit reported that perpetual swaps, a key trading instrument, have shown increasing stability, exhibiting a pattern akin to pre-downturn patterns, suggesting renewed confidence among traders.
“Options markets tell a mixed story, with short-tenor volatility skewed slightly toward out-of-the-money puts, while longer-tenor options display a stronger bullish tilt,” Deribit noted in a January 2 report.
December’s year-end expiration of a significant proportion of options open interest (OI) failed to create the dramatic price swings some had predicted, indicating more measured market behavior.
The regulated cryptocurrency index provider CF Benchmarks has echoed the optimism, pointing to potential regulatory changes under the Trump administration. In an annual report shared with media houses, the firm highlighted how a restructured US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could encourage innovation while reducing enforcement risks.
These changes may enhance investor confidence, but CF Benchmarks also warned that delays in policy implementation could temporarily dampen market sentiment.
Adding to this perspective, Bybit, in collaboration with Block Scholes, released its latest crypto derivatives report on January 3. The derivatives research analyzed open interest trends for Bitcoin and Ethereum during the critical year-end options expiration period.
It revealed that while perpetual swaps open interest has not returned to early December 2024 levels, the market has remained stable.
“This stability suggests that traders did not heavily rely on perpetual contracts to hedge the delta of expiring options, contributing to the muted volatility during the year-end,” the release stated. Trading volumes also dipped during the winter holiday season, leading to a significant drop in realized volatility, the lowest seen in December.
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