Half a decade after the devastating COVID-19 pandemic, China is now confronting a new viral outbreak, this time caused by the human metapneumovirus (HMPV). Reports and social media posts highlight alarming conditions in major cities, with hospitals reportedly overwhelmed by patients and crematories struggling to manage the increase in fatalities.
The current outbreak appears to involve a mix of pathogens, including influenza A, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, rhinovirus, and residual cases of COVID-19. A news update from Reuters confirms a rising trend of HMPV infections, particularly among individuals under 14 years of age in China’s northern provinces.
China is facing a new virus outbreak, with HMPV spreading rapidly and causing flu-like and COVID-19-like symptoms. pic.twitter.com/tkp7TQ9xCD
— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) January 4, 2025
Unconfirmed reports have emerged on some social media accounts, claiming that China has declared a state of emergency due to the surge in cases.
HMPV, which is reportedly more active during winter and early spring, causes flu-like symptoms and primarily affects the upper respiratory system. In severe cases, however, it can lead to lower respiratory tract infections, which may require medical intervention.
The situation surrounding the virus has raised concerns about whether the virus could have a similar impact on global economies as COVID-19. Economists believe the parallels between the current situation in China and the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic are stark.
When COVID-19 emerged, it not only disrupted healthcare systems but also triggered widespread economic consequences. Millions worldwide experienced severe respiratory issues, requiring hospitalization and ventilator support, while others suffered long-term health complications.
The pandemic dealt a severe blow to global markets, with industries like travel, hospitality, and entertainment experiencing unprecedented losses.
Governments introduced massive stimulus packages to mitigate economic fallout, yet many nations struggled to recover. Europe, for instance, faced significant challenges in regaining pre-pandemic economic activity, largely due to premature fiscal consolidation efforts.
To counter the developing hurdles brought by the 2019 pandemic, the United States adopted more robust countercyclical measures, including bipartisan relief bills that extended support well into the later waves of the pandemic.
In May 2023, when the World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 was no longer a global health emergency, the US economy exhibited mixed recovery signals. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023, a slowdown from the 2.6% growth observed in the previous quarter.
Inflation, which had been a significant concern in the preceding years, showed signs of abatement. After peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, the inflation rate declined steadily into 2023 and has now dropped to 2.7%.
China’s economy also exhibited signs of a steady yet uneven recovery. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.5% year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter of 2023. However, data from May revealed a deceleration in this recovery trajectory. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China declined by 0.1% to 155.3, following a 0.6% drop in April 2023.
Owing to the impact of the last pandemic, China and the US economies might struggle if HMPV proves similar. With inflationary pressures persisting in recent years, questions remain about how resilient global economies might be if another major outbreak occurs.
The current outbreak in China has prompted speculation about its potential impact on the so-called “Trump Rally.” When Donald Trump won the 2024 US Presidential Elections, stock markets, cryptocurrencies, and tech equities performed strongly, driven by renewed optimism and policy shifts under President Trump’s administration.
The rally has been fueled by robust consumer demand, innovation in the tech sector, and the US’s proactive economic measures during previous crises. However, a significant disruption in global supply chains or a decline in China’s manufacturing output, key to many industries, could pose risks to this thriving period.
During his first term, when the COVID-19 pandemic began, President Donald Trump praised China’s transparency and efforts in managing the outbreak, stating, “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency.”
However, as the virus spread, he shifted to a more critical stance, referring to COVID-19 as the “Chinese virus” and accusing China of a lack of transparency.
In response to President Donald Trump’s criticisms of China’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping defended his country’s actions, emphasizing transparency and international cooperation.
In a phone call with Trump, Xi highlighted China’s comprehensive measures to control the outbreak and expressed confidence in overcoming the epidemic. Additionally, during a United Nations address, Xi urged global solidarity and opposed the politicization of the virus, indirectly countering Trump’s accusations.
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