Will the Ripple XRP ETF be approved in 2025? Polymarket and analysts weigh in

Recent data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket suggests growing optimism around the approval of an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in 2025, with the probability now pegged at 70%. 

The Polymarket poll, which launched just four days ago, has seen aggressive betting on the Ripple XRP’s ETF approval, with a notable 20% uptick in odds within the past 24 hours. This surge in optimism comes after a previous poll, launched earlier in December 2024, indicated a 49% chance of an XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025. 

Despite the ongoing uncertainty, the trend suggests a growing belief that 2025 could be the year for XRP’s entry into mainstream financial products.

Ripple vs. SEC: Legal developments and market sentiment

According to several market analysts, the potential resolution of the legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has been ongoing for several years, has boosted hopes for an ETF approval. 

Many industry experts believe that the outcome of the Ripple case, expected sometime in 2025, could play a pivotal role in clearing regulatory hurdles and opening the door for the approval of XRP ETFs.

Several prominent companies, including WisdomTree, Bitwise, and 21Shares have already submitted applications for XRP ETFs. There is also speculation that major asset management firm BlackRock might follow suit, although it has so far focused its attention on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Should BlackRock, one of the largest institutional investors globally, file for an XRP ETF, it could have a major impact on market sentiment.

The recent election of crypto-friendly President Donald Trump and the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has further fueled optimism in the market. Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins as the new SEC chair has made the community a little more excited about this year’s market outlook. 

Seen as more crypto-friendly, Atkins’ appointment has heightened expectations that the regulatory environment for digital assets could improve, potentially facilitating the approval of new ETFs, including one for XRP.

XRP’s growing ecosystem and price surge potential

While regulatory developments could play a huge part in the crypto’s long term feasibility, XRP’s ecosystem is also showing signs of growth. Ripple’s USD-backed stablecoin (RLUSD) has been added to several prominent exchanges, including Bullish, Independent Reserve, and Uphold. 

The stablecoin market expansion is seen as a positive development for Ripple, as it increases liquidity and usage of the XRP Ledger, positioning it as a key player in sectors such as Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization.

Ripple’s market performance has also been buoyed by a classic seasonal trend. The so-called “January Effect,” where investors return from holiday breaks and reinvest in promising assets, has seen XRP surge by 16% since the beginning of 2025. 

Per CoinGecko data, after a corrective phase in December 2024, XRP has regained momentum and is currently trading around $2.40, a substantial recovery from its recent lows.

The surge in price has led many to speculate that XRP is setting the stage for further upside. With support now confirmed at the $2 level, many buyers are targeting $3 as the next major resistance point. 

Should XRP continue to show bullish momentum, this could signal the beginning of a more sustained rally, possibly approaching its all-time high (ATH) of $3.30, achieved in January 2018.

Analysts weigh in on key price levels

Some analysts are warning that XRP’s price movements remain inconclusive until it breaks key resistance levels. Prominent analyst EGRAG Crypto highlighted the importance of two price thresholds: $2 and $2.60. 

According to EGRAG, these levels are crucial in determining whether XRP can continue its upward trajectory or if it will face further consolidation or decline.

#XRP – Noise Until we break any of my targets: https://t.co/uaKF1CusVw pic.twitter.com/fyD1ydVxig

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) January 1, 2025

XRP’s price has been oscillating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, a common technical chart formation that often precedes a breakout or breakdown. The range between $2 and $2.60 has been particularly significant, with XRP repeatedly testing these boundaries throughout the latter part of 2024. 

EGRAG notes that a decisive move above $2.60 could signal a breakout toward higher targets, much like XRP’s previous breakouts at lower price levels during 2024. Conversely, a drop below $2 could lead to bearish price action and a potential downturn in XRP’s value.

The analyst further points out that the $2.60 resistance level mirrors previous resistance points seen earlier in 2024, notably around $0.60, $0.65, and $0.75. These levels acted as barriers before XRP successfully broke through them. A similar move above $2.60 could reinforce the bullish sentiment and support further price appreciation.

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