Tesla’s Q4 2024 performance disappoints as its stock crashes

Tesla’s Q4 2024 numbers are out, and let’s just say the results weren’t pretty. Deliveries came in at 495,570. That’s a big miss compared to Wall Street’s expectations, which were between 504,770 and 506,763 vehicles, depending on who you asked.

Tesla produced 459,445 vehicles in Q4 2024. Not great. And for the first time in years, annual deliveries actually went down. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 vehicles in 2024, compared to 1.81 million in 2023. That’s not the direction anyone wanted to see.

The markets didn’t hold back either. Tesla’s stock dropped a sharp 7%. This hit came after a massive rally earlier in the year, where the stock soared 63% and hit a brand-new all-time high in December. That kind of fall hurts.

Analysts got it wrong, again

Wall Street’s expectations were way off the mark. StreetAccount had the Q4 delivery numbers reportedly pegged at 504,770, while Tesla itself told investors to expect around 506,000. Even Troy Teslike, who is usually spot-on with Tesla predictions, expected 501,000. None of those numbers came close to the actual 495,570 vehicles delivered.

It gets worse. Tesla’s Q4 deliveries barely moved the needle compared to the same quarter last year, which saw 484,507 vehicles delivered. If you were betting on Tesla to crush last year’s numbers, you lost that bet. In Q1, the stock dropped 29%, its worst quarter since 2022. Tesla was slashing prices and throwing out incentives, but buyers weren’t biting the way they used to.

CEO Elon Musk tried to calm everyone down during an earnings call in April. He said he expected sales to be higher in 2024 than in 2023. But he also warned that the growth rate wasn’t going to be anywhere near the 38% the company hit in 2023. He wasn’t wrong.

The competition was heating up, especially in Europe and China. In November, Tesla registered only 18,786 vehicles in Europe, down from 31,810 in 2023.

China didn’t offer any relief either. Tesla had to fight off fierce competition from domestic players like BYD, Li Auto, and LeapMotor.

Political distractions and Cybertruck delays

Tesla’s troubles aren’t limited to sales and production. Elon himself has been a major distraction. The world’s richest man spent much of the year campaigning for President Donald Trump, throwing $277 million into his campaign and traveling across swing states to promote Republican candidates.

Elon has also been tapped to co-lead a Trump advisory group focused on slashing federal spending and regulations. Whether this involvement will help Tesla in the long run is anyone’s guess, but it’s certainly added drama to an already chaotic year.

Despite the setbacks, Elon has big plans for 2025, including the launch of cheaper autonomous vehicles and expanded production. On an October earnings call, he projected 20%-30% growth for 2025, fueled by ramped-up production of the Cybertruck and new, lower-cost models.

Tesla is targeting 2.5 million vehicles in production next year, a big leap from 2024’s 1.77 million. Analysts are cautiously optimistic. Revenue is expected to jump from $107.12 billion in 2024 to $127.61 billion in 2025. Earnings per share could rise by 37%, hitting $3.87. Stock price predictions for mid-2025 are all over the place, though, ranging from a bullish $786.21 to a bearish $218.90.

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