Bitcoin expected to stall until next year as market focus turns to Ethereum

Bitcoin is stuck. The $100,000 milestone that felt inevitable has proven to be a nearly impenetrable fortress. Analysts are already shifting their attention to Ethereum, which is gaining momentum while Bitcoin lags.

Over $100 million worth of BTC and ETH positions were wiped out in liquidations across major exchanges, but surprisingly, both assets held their ground.

Bitcoin hasn’t dipped below $95,000, and Ethereum is still above $3,200. That’s the floor for now. The ceiling? For Bitcoin, it’s a stubborn $100k sell wall that’s giving bulls a serious headache.

QCP Capital captured the market’s frustration in its latest Telegram post. It pointed out that BTC’s call options are only seeing real interest for late December contracts, likely driven by anticipated pro-crypto policies by the Trump administration in 2025.

Ethereum, on the other hand, is basking in short-term enthusiasm, with risk reversals skewed heavily toward call options. Bitcoin’s dominance slipped from 62% to 59% in just one week, and the trend could deepen if this $100k stalemate continues.

It’s not all bad news though. Michael Saylor is teasing another Bitcoin buy, and if history is any guide, his wallet can light a fire under the market. Whether that fire breaks $100k is anyone’s guess.

The double-edged sword of Bitcoin’s liquidity

Bitcoin smashed its previous all-time high on election night and hasn’t stopped pushing boundaries since. Spot trading volumes soared, breaking records on a seven-day moving average. Right after the election, daily traded value topped $40 billion.

Now it’s settled into the $25–35 billion range—still two to three times higher than the lackluster volumes from earlier this year. Futures volumes aren’t far behind either. For the first time since 2021, Bitcoin’s futures activity is close to setting a new record.

But here’s the catch: all that trading hasn’t made BTC any less fragile. Order book depth, which measures how much liquidity is available for trades, has actually gotten thinner. The 1% spot order book depth in USD terms expanded only because prices went up, not because of actual liquidity inflows.

When you look at it in terms of raw Bitcoin, the depth has shrunk. Ethereum and Solana show the same issue. This mismatch between trading volumes and order book depth makes the market hypersensitive. 

High volumes should be a good thing, but with a shallow order book, any big trade or sudden news can whip prices into a frenzy. QCP Capital describes this as “higher price elasticity.” In plain terms, prices swing harder because there’s less cushion to absorb shocks.

Bitcoin’s liquidity absorption ratio—a metric comparing daily spot volumes to average order book depth—confirms the tension. Ratios this high have only shown up twice in the last two years: during the early 2023 rally from $15,000 to $30,000 and the ETF-driven run that took BTC from $30,000 to $60,000.

Both were explosive moves, but neither came without risks. Now, the ratio is back at those peak levels, signaling another potential breakout—but also a heightened chance of a correction.

Ethereum is enjoying the spotlight. Its risk reversals—basically a measure of how traders are positioning themselves—are tilted sharply toward call options. Traders are betting on Ethereum in the short term, unlike Bitcoin, where most of the action is in options for late December or beyond.

Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped three percentage points in a week, and Ethereum seems ready to pick up the slack. Solana, another notable altcoin, is also seeing encouraging turnover, even if it hasn’t matched its 2021 cycle highs yet.

What lies beneath: Order books and market skews

Bitcoin’s order book skew is another thorn in its side. This metric looks at the balance of sell orders versus buy orders. Right now, the skew is approaching levels only seen three times since 2022. What does that mean? Sellers are stacking the book, and buyers aren’t keeping up.

At extreme levels, this kind of imbalance makes the market ripe for a pullback. Interestingly, the skew hasn’t stopped Bitcoin from rallying before. But with $100k looming as a psychological and technical barrier, the struggle this time could be harder.

The ask side of the order book is loaded, creating a wall of resistance that’s tough to break without significant new demand. Meanwhile, macroeconomic factors aren’t exactly helping. Stocks are rising on hopes of tax cuts and improved growth, but the bond market is throwing up red flags.

Concerns about 2025’s fiscal policy, inflation, and central bank independence could spill over into crypto. If traditional risk assets stumble, Bitcoin might not be spared.

Meanwhile, turnover for most altcoins returned to 2021 levels. Solana is an exception, showing resilience in both spot and futures markets.

Even so, Bitcoin remains the market’s anchor—for better or worse.

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