S&P, Treasury yields and crypto skyrocket with Trump’s probable win

Markets are in action as early election results favoring Donald Trump fuel gains across stocks and crypto. S&P 500 futures are up, Treasury yields are surging, and the dollar’s on track for its biggest win since 2020. With two-thirds of US state election results now, S&P futures rose 1.2%, while US 10-year yields jumped to a four-month high of 4.44%. 

Bitcoin (BTC) joined the rally, spiking by over 8% to hit a new record touching $75,000 for the first time. Investors were betting big on Trump’s win against Harris. Reportedly, Bitcoin has delivered high post-election returns as it gained 87%, 44%, and 145% in 2012, 2016, and 2020, respectively.

Trump’s early lead fuels market surge

Presidential Candidate Donald Trump’s early Electoral College lead over Harris has boosted trades tied to a Republican win. This has spurred demand for smaller-cap stocks, crypto, and sectors sensitive to Grand Old Party policies.

Data shows that Japanese and Australian stocks climbed, while Hong Kong slipped. Nikkei 225 gained 2.46% while S&P/ASX 200 grew marginally. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged 1.3% as the dollar’s safe haven appeal kicked in amid election night volatility. The Mexican peso dropped 2.8%, while the yen and euro fell by over 1.5%. As the dollar rallied, metals like copper took a hit, while oil prices dipped.

Small caps on the Russell 2000 surged by 2.5%, with domestic-focused companies positioned to benefit from Republican policies if Trump prevails. However, Trump Media & Tech Group jumped by more than 43% in early trading on Robinhood. The gains suggest a broader “Trump trades” outlook linked to policy expectations.

Betting sites are showing a spike in Trump’s odds, and markets are feeling the impact with gains across Trump-linked assets. Polymarket shows that the Republican candidate now holds 99% odds of winning the elections. Similarly, Kalshi predicts 97% odds for Trump.

Bitcoin hits record $75K

Analysts expect Bitcoin to fluctuate sharply until a winner is declared. A Trump win could drive prices higher, while a Harris victory may bring downside risks. Bitcoin price skyrocketed by 18% in the last 30 days. The crypto king is trading at an average price of $75,003, at press time. Its 24-hour trading volume is up by 97% to stand at $82.4 billion.

The global crypto market cap surged by around 11% over the last day to stand at $2.48 trillion with a trading volume of $154 billion. Crypto stocks are following the same trend. Coinbase rose 4% while MicroStrategy is up by 2%. With Fed rate cuts expected ahead, crypto markets may be recording a whopping rally for even more upside post-election.

Goldman Sachs predicts a Republican sweep could push the S&P 500 up by 3%. However, a Democratic victory across both Congress and the presidency could mean a 3% drop.

JPMorgan sees a stock boost for all scenarios except a Democratic sweep, while Morgan Stanley warns of possible yield-driven risks in a GOP win scenario, especially for growth stocks.