Analysts predict Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 may sacrifice sales to boost Game Pass

Analysts Michael Pachter and Piers Harding-Rolls predict that the Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 release will attract millions of new Game Pass subscribers at the cost of direct sales.

Pachter stated that Microsoft focused on a larger Game Pass audience and in-game monetization. Piers Harding-Rolls and Dr. Serkan Toto also discussed the long-term implications of the Game Pass release approach.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 is the seventh game in the Block Ops series, and it was released today, October 25. The highly anticipated first-person shooter published by Activision hit the ground running after getting mostly positive reviews on Steam.

The game has been released for PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, and PC.

Analysts predict Black Ops 6 Game Pass trends

Analysts predict Call of Duty: Black Ops 6's Game Pass launch could bring 3-4m new members to Xbox Game Pass, but at a cost of up to 6m lost sales. Microsoft's subscription service strategy is put to the test. Call of pic.twitter.com/8EPLvaiFod

— Diablo Phong (@DiabloPhong) October 25, 2024

Before Activision’s fps game release, three analysts interviewed by Gameindustry.biz gave their takes on how the game’s release on Game Pass will go down.

Michael Pachter, the managing director at Wedbush Securities, predicted that there will be a substantial increase in Game Pass subscribers. Patcher estimated that the release format used would result in the loss of approximately six million units in direct sales while bringing in approximately three to four million new Game Pass members. 

Another analyst, Piers Harding-Rolls, the head games analyst at Ampere Analysis, gave a more conservative take on the release. Harding-Rolls expects a 10% increase in Game Pass subscriptions, which would bring in 2.5 million new members. He also stated that most of the new members coming to the Game Pass may be existing users upgrading to a higher subscription tier rather than new customers.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 is set to be Microsoft’s first launch for the game franchise after acquiring Activision Blizzard for $69 billion in October 2023. The Xbox and PC juggernaut expanded its game catalog through the acquisition, bringing the once PlayStation-exclusive Call of Duty games to its console audience.

Black Ops 6’s release is set to become the first game in the franchise to launch day one on Xbox’s subscription service – Game Pass.

Analysts discuss the long-term implications of the release 

Dr. Serkan Toto from Katan Games also gave his two cents on the implications of the new Game Pass approach Microsoft took for this release. Toto stated that Microsoft was under pressure to perform. As a consequence, if Black Ops 6 didn’t meet growth expectations, Microsoft would face serious challenges.

Toto identified retaining new subscribers over the long term after the initial excitement fades as the primary challenge Activision’s parent company faced, stating that he isn’t sure how the numbers will play out in this scenario.

Similarly, Harding-Rolls also discussed the implications of the release on the PlayStation audience. Previously, Activision had a deal with Sony to have the Call of Duty as a PlayStation exclusive until 2024. However, a 10-year agreement has now been established to ensure the continued availability of Call of Duty on PlayStation consoles.

As such, Harding-Rolls stated that he believes the Black Ops 6 release on Game Pass might not disrupt the PlayStation user base significantly. He added that cross-platform play and multi-platform accounts lessen the need for users to switch consoles.