Can BRICS miners really win the hashing war and bypass sanctions?

The BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, raised the issue of international sanctions and capital controls. Bitcoin (BTC) mining was raised as potentially bypassing the sanctions. 

BRICS may bring back dominance in Bitcoin (BTC) mining and use the valuable coins as betting chips for international finance. The formation of a BRICS group as an alternative to Western economic regions raises the question of sanctions and cross-border capital controls, which are often circumvented with crypto usage. 

If BRICS countries manage to mine Bitcoin, they could find buyers and bypass some of the sanctions, experts suggested. This time around, BRICS countries may not rely on voluntary mining. Russian miners were among early crypto adopters and users in the first years of Bitcoin, but the country may aim to become a bigger player in mining geopolitics. 

Despite the fears of experts, it is highly improbable that BRICS countries could flood the market with newly mined coins. With a transparent blockchain, some of the transactions may be tracked, and exchanges can choose to blacklist wallets. BTC is also traceable and exchanges may refuse to carry out trades if the origin of the coins is unknown.

Even OTC trades may not be freely available. Crypto coins and tokens have been used to bypass border capital controls, but they may not be enough to bypass global sanctions. Only Venezuela has tested using stablecoins as an alternative for oil sales. 

Russia prepares for tighter state control on mining

Russia’s biggest data center operator, BitRiver, has built a partnership with the Russian Direct Investment Fund to build mining and AI facilities across BRICS nations. The shift to mining acceptance follows a previous crackdown on Russian miners, including those in residential areas. 

BitRiver operates 21 data centers in Russia, with another 10 under construction. The firm has received state backing in a drive to boost the number of reliable, high-power data centers. Data center competition is a worldwide trend, with the USA still retaining the lead. 

From November 1, Russia will have a registration regime for large-scale mining operations. Mining farms will have to register with tax authorities, while individual miners can go without registration, but may face restrictions to electricity access. 

The state also preserves the right to issue a total ban on mining activities, if deemed necessary. Crypto mining is using up 1.5% of Russia’s electricity, close to the range of US mining taking up between 0.6% and 2.3% of total consumption.

Can BRICS miners really compete?

Despite the call for BRICS miners, those countries are lagging when it comes to Bitcoin infrastructure. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are not even hosting Bitcoin nodes, as seen on the live map. This may mean miners located in those countries are using other nodes as a service, or linking to bigger mining pools. 

Mining operations are also blurring the boundaries, as even Russian farms can join any pool. Despite this, pools like Foundry.USA relies on local Bitcoin production and has some of the most developed mining infrastructure. 

Newly mined BTC may also be highly valuable, as it has not been tied to any users or wallets. BRICS miners could sell the coins on the OTC market, or use them for trading. The problem is that BTC is not valuable enough to sustain at-scale international trading, at least not at its current price.

BRICS countries have one advantage – most are high in the crypto adoption business. Russia has an index of 7, surpassing most European countries. India is ranked at 1, due to retail usage and meme trends. Other countries also use various crypto assets, despite gray areas in regulations. China has grown its usage of USDT for trading and e-commerce, but also as an informal tool to bypass capital controls. 

However, BRICS crypto markets are wildly disparate and may not turn into a unified bloc of miners. Additionally, even if they could mine successfully, the Bitcoin rewards have fallen to 3.125 BTC per block, limiting the potential earnings. The one advantage is that Bitmain’s machines may be easily accessible. Beijing-based Bitmain has so far not denied any international miners their shipments, and supplies most of the big mining farms with equipment.