Bitcoin trends mirror 2021, indicating potential downturn

Bitcoin may be facing a significant market correction as patterns reminiscent of 2021 are emerging in its price movements, according to a recent analysis by popular trader Alan Santana on TradingView.

Santana has compared the Bitcoin price trend in April and November 2021 with the current market situation in October 2024 and predicted a dip if the trend persists.

Parallels between 2021 and 2024

Santana’s analysis shows that the prices started to increase in both April and November 2021, but by the end of the two months, the markets had turned bearish. This change signified the end of the bull market which meant that the price was to decline in the long run. In both months, a Doji candlestick, which is a pattern that indicates that there is uncertainty in the market, occurred right before the downward trend. 

Santana also observes a similar pattern for October 2024 where prices are green at the beginning and then become red at the end of the month. The doji candlestick has formed again, which means that the market may be headed for the same pattern of correction.

Santana predicts that if the month ends with a red session, this may signal a large long-term declining high that could lead to a large bearish trend for Bitcoin. This would not be a new trend in the market but rather the continuation of an ongoing bearish trend that has been in the market for the whole year.

In addition to patterns, Santana has outlined several important levels to look for, $55,000, $44,000, and $36,000. He noted that a drop below the levels could lead to more losses and the market may go into a long-term bearish trend. However, he stressed that conclusions cannot be made until the last session of the month.

However, Santana also notes that while the larger cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to remain under pressure, many mid and small cap altcoins are continuing to rally. 

Competing analysis predicts major Bitcoin price surge

While Santana sees a bearish trend, Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, offers a different view that could lead to an upside for Bitcoin. Franzen believes that the price of Bitcoin is about to experience a major breakout. 

His research is built around the 120-day Williams%R Oscillator – an indicator used to gauge the momentum of price shifts. This signal has been known to give reliable insights on the direction of Bitcoin and Franzen’s forecast sees it rising.

According to Franzen, the analysis begins in November 2022 when Bitcoin rose after the oscillator crossed from the oversold level to the overbought level. This trend is evident in two events in 2023. In January, Bitcoin rose by 48% within three months, and in October, the cryptocurrency jumped to 123% within six months. 

Bitcoin has been up by 226.8% since January 14, 2023, and it has gained 106.9% since October 23, 2023. These statistics support the validity of Franzen’s data in forecasting the future of Bitcoin. At the time of writing this, Bitcoin is at $66,344 and has fallen by 1.80% in the past 24 hours.