Bitcoin just lost its last chance for a massive breakout

During the last days of December 2023, the crypto community was having a blast. We were all looking forward to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs.

And with the backing of the most powerful company on the planet along with the April halving, Bitcoin’s bull run seemed like a sure thing.

But here we are, nine months after BlackRock and the rest first listed their products and Bitcoin’s got ridiculously so very little to show for it.

Is Bitcoin the problem?

Sure it broke all-time highs, but really? $73,000? That’s the best Bitcoin could do with all the unprecedented catalysts 2024 keeps giving us?

Analysts were predicting $100,000, $200,000 for this coin. Some, like Michael Saylor and Mark Cuban, got too excited and placed their targets at $500,000. They probably feel a bit silly right about now.

There’s a pattern here. Bitcoin gets one win, reacts to it super weakly, and then goes right back into consolidation, where it seems to be way too comfortable.

Before September 18th, Bitcoin was in consolidation for sixty consecutive days with very little buying activity, though with an active derivatives market.

In what world does Bitcoin not react massively to America’s gigantic institutional interest, the halving, Ethereum getting its own ETFs too, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in four years, a consistently weak stock market, China injecting $500 billion of liquidity, AND an Uptober in the most bullish year of its life?

Even Satoshi himself would expect Bitcoin to do better. But it seems like the OG crypto is completely overpowered by the very thing it was created to fix:- traditional finance.

World War III incoming?

But crypto isn’t the only house having a busy 2024. World leaders are too. The term ‘World War III’ is trending on both X and TikTok right now, and people are liquidating assets of all kinds like crazy.

This is what happens during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. And from the look of things at the moment, it’s safe to expect the absolute worst from the people in charge of our world.

But here is what’s confusing. Bitcoin was literally built to save people against this. The idea is that Bitcoin is secure thanks to the blockchain and also its limited supply, so people should be turning to it right now, not away from it like everything else.

If folks are liquidating their stocks and their real estate investments, it should be so they can put it into Bitcoin, where they know is safe and decentralized with no point of failure.

Satoshi’s whitepaper lays it all out. But he made the [necessary] mistake of leaving his creation in our hands, and we went ahead to market it as an investment product instead of the revolutionary payment system it’s supposed to be.

And so here we are, fifteen years down the line in what is supposed to be Bitcoin’s best year ever, watching it struggle not to fall under $60,000. Spoiler: It’s probably gonna.

Israel has promised to respond to Iran’s attacks in days. It’s clearly going to do that with America’s backing. And Russia is not going to sit back and let these two bully Iran.

Vladimir Putin will join Iran, and China (whose president calls Putin “my best friend”) will join them, and then probably North Korea.

But the UK, along with its NATO buddies, will be banding with the U.S. to clear out their decades-long geopolitical frustration with Russia.

Either way, you get the idea. It’s only getting worse from here. Liquidations will keep happening and Bitcoin will likely keep tumbling.

A personal prediction for a bottom is $50,000. But with the chaotic U.S. election coming next month, we might test $40,000.

But overall, BTC’s fundamentals remain strong, and even if the world ends and everything fails, Bitcoin will remain. Through it all, it will be the last one standing.