Cardano’s on-chain metrics suggest a risk of a 30% price decline

Santiment’s on-chain data reveals that Cardano’s $ADA could potentially drop 30%. According to data retrieved from the market intelligence platform, $ADA’s poor performances in DDA divergence (-43.3%), network activity, and buying pressure indicated declining demand, thus an imminent sharp price drop.  

The data showed that ADA’s trading volume had dropped to the second-lowest level in 2024, to $458M. ADA’s value slipped 4.81% to $0.36 in the last 24 hours as daily active addresses fell from September’s high of over 52K to around 22K. CoinGecko’s data confirmed this trend, revealing a 17% decline in ADA’s price over the last 30 days. The data also confirmed that ADA’s price had moved sideways since its sharp drop in August.

Santiment data reveals a bearish trend for ADA’s value 

Santiment’s on-chain data unveiled a declining demand for ADA, questioning the sustainability of its strong 26% surge after the Fed rate cuts two weeks ago. The data revealed that diminishing buying pressure and network activity added to investor caution, raising even more doubts about ADA’s ability to sustain the current rally.

The drop in demand and rising pressure to sell was a warning sign that Cardano’s ADA could dip 30% to a yearly low of $0.27. The negative DAA divergence suggested that much of ADA’s recent rally was fueled by market sentiments other than the token’s specific demand. The lack of organic demand increased the likelihood of a steep correction in the near future. Consequently, Cardano’s price could potentially fall sharply as investors began to lock in profits. 

ADA’s Tradingview chart projected that a deeper correction pushing back ADA’s price toward its yearly low of $0.27 was inevitable if $ADA failed to break above its current resistance level of ~$0.41. The bearish trend suggested that Cardano’s outlook was uncertain, and investors would need to brace for risks of further downtrends. The chart supported ADA’s need to reclaim its $0.41 level and break past the next crucial resistance at $0.45 to confirm ‘bullishness.’ 

Cardano’s past performance and the upcoming hard fork push prices downwards

CoinGecko’s ADA charts revealed that the crypto project spent most of its previous month spiraling downwards. The price trends also suggested a strong near-term bearish trend. 

Santiment’s data revealed that ADA’s whale activity showed a possible rally despite ADA’s bearish outlook. The data confirmed that ADA had 89 large-scale transactions of over $100K each on August 27, indicating a surge in whale activity in accumulating ADA. The buying was done during a dip, and a 16.91% DAA increase was observed within the same period. The data revealed a steady decline in transaction volume since March, indicating ADA’s poor performance as the Chang hard fork approaches.

A Messari report affirmed that ADA’s price plunged to 39.7%, and its 39.4% drop in market capitalization could be attributed to the slight increase in ADA’s circulating supply. The report further showed that Cardano’s QoQ revenue had plummeted by 44.3% to ~$0.74 million as average daily transactions declined by 27.5%.  

The drop in Cardano’s dApp activity by 35.7% and TVL (total value locked) by 41.2%, as shown in Santiment’s data, also explained why other metrics were negatively affected.  

Notably, discussions about the upcoming Chang hard fork and Cardano’s transition to the Voltaire era revealed that despite the improvements involved, the hard fork had no significant impact on ADA’s price.