Gold price retreats after hitting new record high; downside seems cushioned by Trump-related anxieties
- Gold price advances further beyond $2,900 and hits a fresh all-time peak on Tuesday.
- Trump’s new tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to boost the safe-haven commodity.
- A modest USD strength prompts some intraday profit-taking around the XAU/USD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's breakout momentum above the $2,900 round-figure mark and gains strong follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on commodity imports reignite global trade war fears and lift the safe-haven bullion to a fresh record high, around the $2,942-2,943 area in the last hour. Furthermore, expectations that Trump's protectionist policies would boost inflation turn out to be another factor that underpins the precious metal's status as a hedge against rising prices.
Meanwhile, Friday's upbeat US employment details, along with inflation concerns, leave room for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold interest rates steady, which, in turn, lifts the US Dollar (USD) to over a one-week top. Furthermore, overbought conditions on the daily chart prompt some intraday profit-taking around the non-yielding Gold price ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day semi-annual congressional testimony starting this Tuesday. That said, the fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.
Gold price remains well supported by the global flight to safety amid global trade war fears
- US President Donald Trump signed two proclamations on Monday, introducing 25% tariffs on metals and ending all exclusions on steel and aluminum tariffs first imposed during his first tenure from 2016 to 2020.
- Adding to this, Trump told reporters that he would announce reciprocal tariffs on other countries in the next two days, propelling the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh record high during the Asian session on Tuesday.
- Commenting on Middle East tensions, Trump said that Hamas should release all hostages held by midday Saturday, or he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and "let all hell break loose."
- The US Dollar advances to over a one-week high amid expectations that Trump's protectionist policies would reignite inflation in the US and force the Federal Reserve to stick to its hawkish stance and hold rates steady.
- A stronger USD, along with overbought conditions on the daily chart, prompts some profit-taking around the XAU/USD amid some repositioning ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony.
- Powell's remarks will be closely scrutinized for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will influence the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity.
Gold price technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying
From a technical perspective, a slide below the $2,900 mark is likely to find some support near the $2,886-2,882 horizontal zone. Some follow-through selling could drag the Gold price further towards the $2,855-2,852 intermediate support en route to the $2,834 region. Any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited near the $2,800 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, should pave the way for deeper losses.
On the flip side, the Asian session swing high, around the $2,842-2,843 region, now seems to act as an immediate strong barrier. Bulls are likely to pause near the said barrier amid the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, which makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for the next leg up. Nevertheless, the broader technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside and supports prospects for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past two months or so.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Recommended Articles
