Chinese aluminum production hits record highs – ING

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) numbers released this morning show that Chinese monthly primary aluminum production rose 3.6% YoY to reach a record of 3.7mt in November as rising overseas export demand helped the metal output stay elevated. Cumulatively, output rose 4.6% YoY to 40.2mt over the first 11 months of the year, ING’s commodity analyst Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Aluminum production in China is record high

According to media reports, Japanese aluminum buyers were offered a premium of US$228/t (the highest premium since 2015) for the first quarter of 2025, up from US$175/t (+30% quarter-on-quarter) this quarter. However, it is slightly lower than the initial offers of US$230-260/t. The increase in premiums reflects expectations of tighter supply in Asia after China cancelled a 13% tax rebate on aluminum products from 1 December 2024.

In mine supply, Peru’s latest official numbers showed that copper output in the country fell 1.3% YoY to 237kt in October. It is reported that cumulative output loses from mines like Cerro Verde, and Quellaveco’s primarily contributed to Peru’s overall production decline in October. Cumulatively, production declined 0.7% YoY to 2.23mt for the first 10 months of the year.

Meanwhile, weekly data from Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) shows that inventories for base metals remained mixed over the last week. Aluminum weekly stocks fell by 9,875 tons for a seventh consecutive week to 214,501 tons as of last Friday, the lowest since 10 May 2024. Copper inventories decreased by 13,199 tons (-13.5% week-on-week) for the eighth week straight to 84,557 tons (the lowest since 2 February 2024), while zinc inventories declined by 2,317 tons (-4.4% WoW) for a fourth consecutive week to 50,666 tons (the lowest since 9 February 2024) at the end of last week.