Gold rallies as safe-haven demand increases on intensifying Middle East conflict
- Gold rises on increased safe-haven demand as the conflict in the Middle East deepens.
- Israel steps up bombing of Beirut and is poised to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran after a bomb explodes near Netanyahu’s house.
- XAU/USD continues trending higher as it pushes deeper into territory above $2,700.
Gold (XAU/USD) is already up half a percent to trade in the $2,730s on Monday during the European session after rising over 1.0% on Friday. The precious metal is gaining on a mixture of increased safe-haven demand due to the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and moves by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to further ease credit conditions by cutting interest rates.
The PBoC’s move to lower its one-year and five-year prime loan borrowing rates not only has the effect of increasing Gold’s attractiveness as a non-interest-paying asset, but also suggests the potential of more demand for Gold from Chinese investors and private buyers, who already make up the largest market for the commodity in the world.
Gold rises as Middle East tensions reach boiling point
Gold rallies as investor demand for safety increases due to the deepening conflict in the Middle East. Israel has stepped up its bombardment of Beirut by destroying several economic targets in an attempt to wipe out the bank that provides Hezbollah with its funding. The bank, which also serves a large Shiite population of muslims in Lebanon, is the main conduit for donations to Hezbollah, including $50 million a year from Iran, according to Bloomberg News. By destroying it, Israel not only hopes to remove the organization’s principal source of funding but also ferment discord amongst Hezbollah and the Shiite Lebanese community.
Further, Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran is back on the table after an Iranian drone penetrated Israeli air-defense systems and exploded near the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence. Following the attack, Netanyahu convened several emergency meetings to discuss preparations for Israel’s delayed attack on Iran.
Technical Analysis: Gold approaches next target as trend extends
Gold is rising in a steady uptrend on all time frames (short, medium and long) and after breaching the $2,700 mark it is now on its way to the next target at $2,750.
XAU/USD Daily Chart
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, however, advising long-holders not to add to their positions because of an increased risk of a pullback. Should RSI close back in neutral territory, it will be a sign for long-holders to close their positions and open shorts as a deeper correction may evolve. Support lies at $2,700 (key level) and $2,685 (September high).
Gold’s strong overall uptrend, however, suggests that any corrections are likely to be short-lived, and afterward the broader bull trend will probably resume.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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