Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits another record high above $2,700
- Gold price gains momentum to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Uncertainty surrounding the US election and geopolitical risks prompted higher demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.
- The fear of a Chinese economic slowdown could weigh on the XAU/USD.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty surrounding tensions in the Middle East and the US presidential election boosts the safe haven flows.
The uptick in the precious metal is bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainties around the US elections and easing monetary policy expectations from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). "With the conflict intensifying – particularly following Hezbollah's announcement to escalate the war with Israel – investors are flocking to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset," noted Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. "Adding to the momentum, concerns around the U.S. presidential election and anticipation of looser monetary policies have further fuelled the rally," Zumpfe added.
Furthermore, the prospects of further Fed rate cuts continue to underpin the Gold price. The US central bank lowered its interest rates for the first time in more than four years in the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of an additional quarter-point rate cut in November stand at more than 90%. Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, lifting the Gold price.
On the other hand, China’s sluggish economy could undermine the precious metal. China's economy grew in the third quarter (Q3) at the slowest pace since early last year. The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that the GDP expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 versus 4.7% prior. This figure was below the government's "around 5%" target for this year. This, in turn, might weigh on the yellow metal as China is the world's largest gold consumer.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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