OPEC still too optimistic for demand despite downward revision – Commerzbank

In its monthly report published yesterday, OPEC revised its demand forecast downwards for the first time for a while, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC regains its optimism towards global demand

“According to the report, global oil demand is set to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year. This is 135 thousand barrels per day less than in the previous forecast. For 2025, OPEC continues to expect an increase in demand of 1.8 million barrels per day. The forecast reduction is primarily due to a weak first quarter, which was reduced by 400 thousand barrels per day.”

“In contrast, the corrections in the other quarters were noticeably smaller. Despite the forecast reduction, OPEC remains significantly more optimistic about demand than other market observers. The IEA confirmed today that it only expects demand to rise by slightly less than 1 million barrels per day this year and next.”

“If the estimated call on OPEC+ is compared with current OPEC+ production, the oil market will remain significantly undersupplied according to OPEC's forecast, even if the voluntary production cuts by some OPEC+ countries are gradually reversed from October as intended. However, despite the downward revision, we believe that OPEC's demand forecast is still far too optimistic and that the estimated call on OPEC+ is therefore too high.”