SEK: Krona remains expensive – ING

Our model returns a short-term fair value for EUR/SEK around 11.25-11.30. This means that despite the correction from the recent highs, the krona continues to price in a good deal of positives, ING's FX analysts Francesco Pesole and James Smith note.

EUR/SEK to return to the 11.20 area in the second quarter

"Our baseline for the second quarter is that negative tariff news will take over fiscal enthusiasm as the main driver for European currencies. Since EUR/SEK has an inverse correlation with European risk sentiment, we forecast a return to the 11.20 area in the second quarter. Also supporting the pair could be a hawkish repricing in ECB rate expectations, as markets are still pricing in two cuts and we expect only one."

"Markets are not pricing in any additional easing by the Riksbank, so should policymakers signal they are keeping the door open for easing if needed, SEK may accelerate its correction after the rate announcement."