GBP/USD steadies around 1.2900 as traders adopt caution ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls
- GBP/USD remains steady due to market caution ahead of the US NFP data release on Friday.
- The US Dollar weakens as US Treasury yields fall on rising sentiment of more aggressive Fed rate cuts this year.
- BoE’s Mann reiterated that the larger rate cut was intended to better communicate the policy stance.
GBP/USD holds little gains after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 1.2880 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair steadies as traders adopt caution ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, extends its losing streak for the fifth successive day, driven by falling US Treasury yields as markets anticipate more aggressive Fed rate cuts this year amid US growth concerns. The DXY is trading around 104.00 with 2- and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 3.94% and 4.24%, respectively, at the time of writing.
According to MUFG Bank analysts, expectations are increasing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may prioritize addressing slowing economic growth over elevated inflation in response to US tariffs, which could weigh on the US Dollar. A recent decline in consumer confidence indicates growing household concerns over the inflationary impact of tariffs and economic risks stemming from rising policy uncertainty in the United States (US).
Meanwhile, traders remain focused on global trade developments, as Canada postpones its planned second round of retaliatory tariffs on US products until April 2. This decision follows US President Donald Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian goods under the USMCA from his proposed 25% tariffs.
In the United Kingdom (UK), rate markets now project fewer than 50 basis points (bps) in rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE) in 2025, marking a substantial reduction in expectations as central banks continue to struggle with persistent inflation.
BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann stated on Thursday that gradual interest rate adjustments no longer provide clear signals to volatile financial markets. Mann emphasized that larger moves are now necessary to “cut through” market noise for the benefit of the economy. Citing Bloomberg, she noted that the larger rate cut she supported in the latest meeting aimed to more effectively convey policy stance and influence economic conditions.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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