USD/CHF holds positive ground above 0.9100 on firmer US Dollar
- USD/CHF gains ground to near 0.9110 in Monday’s early European session.
- The upbeat US employment data for January supports the US Dollar.
- The uncertainty and ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven currency like the CHF.
The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to around 0.9110 during the early European session on Monday. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates hold this year after the US January employment data, supporting the Greenback. Fed's Chair Powell testifies will be the highlight on Tuesday. Later on Wednesday, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be in focus.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six other units, currently trades near 108.20, gaining 0.14% on the day. The US economy created 143K new jobs in January, missing economists' estimates of 170K jobs. However, the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.0% in January from 4.1% in December.
Furthermore, analysts said that tariff policies by the Trump administration could be inflationary and put further pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. Markets are pricing in 36 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, down from 42 bps after an upbeat payrolls report on Friday. This, in turn, contributes to the USD’s upside.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) could appreciate in the coming months as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to return to negative interest rates, Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister said in a note. The SNB might end its rate-cutting cycle with a policy rate of 0.0%, compared with 0.5% currently. Meanwhile, the global economic uncertainty and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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