USD/CHF attracts some buyers above 0.9050, US NFP data looms
- USD/CHF drifts higher to around 0.9060 in Friday’s early European session, adding 0.17% on the day.
- Investors brace for the US January employment report, which is due later on Friday.
- Escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.
The USD/CHF pair gains traction to near 0.9060 during the early European session on Friday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand provides some support to the pair. Later on Friday, the US employment data for January will take center stage.
Despite the hawkish hold, LSEG statistics showed that markets continue to expect 46.3 basis points (bps) of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions by December, with a quarter-point cut fully priced for July. The US January labor market data will be the highlight later on Friday as it might offer some hint about a US interest rate outlook. The weaker NFP report could trigger dovish Fed expectations, undermining the Greenback. On the other hand, the upside surprise outcome could affirm the Fed’s hawkish tone and could lift the USD broadly.
The Middle East and Europe condemn Trump’s plans to take over Gaza. On Thursday, Trump said that Israel would hand over Gaza to the United States after the fighting was over and the enclave's population was already resettled elsewhere, which he said meant no US troops would be needed on the ground. Investors will closely monitor the development of surrounding geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
"What Trump is proposing is clearly catastrophic for Gaza, but it would also be destabilising for the countries in the region," Hugh Lovatt, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), tells Euronews. Any sign of escalating tensions could boost the safe-haven currency like the Swiss Franc (CHF).
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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