USD/CAD trades with mild positive bias above 1.4400 ahead of US GDP
- USD/CAD attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- The BoC’s dovish stance and bearish Oil prices continue to undermine the Loonie.
- Declining US bond yields keep the USD bulls on the defensive and cap spot prices.
The USD/CAD pair rebounds over 40 pips from the intraday low and climbs to a fresh daily high, around the 1.4435 area during the early part of the European session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through and remain confined in a familiar range held over the past month or so.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to be weighed down by the Bank of Canada's (BoC) relative dovish stance and concerns about US President Donald Trump's threatened trade tariffs. In fact, the BoC decided to cut interest rates for the sixth time in a row since June and announced an end to its quantitative tightening program. Apart from this, a bearish sentiment surrounding Crude Oil prices turns out to be another factor undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and offering support to the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to stand pat at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday and signaled that there would be no rush to lower borrowing costs until inflation and jobs data made it appropriate. This, in turn, is seen lending some support to the US Dollar (USD) and also acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. That said, the uncertainty about the Trump administration's policies triggers a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields and holds back the USD bulls from placing fresh bets.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the release of the Advance US Q4 GDP print, due later during the early North American session. Apart from this, the US bond yields and Trump's tariff plans will influence the USD. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Annualized
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Jan 30, 2025 13:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 2.6%
Previous: 3.1%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.
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