USD/CAD holds below 1.4350 as US CPI data boosts Fed rate cut bets
- USD/CAD softens to around 1.4335 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- The cooler-than-expected US core CPI revives bets on Fed rate cuts this year.
- Crude oil prices rise on US crude draw and Russia sanctions, supporting the commodity-linked Loonie.
The USD/CAD pair extends the decline to near 1.4335 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens after the cooler-than-expected inflation data triggered the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates twice this year.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.9% on a yearly basis in December, compared to 2.7% in November. This reading came in line with market expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.2% on a yearly basis in December, below the previous reading and the market consensus of 3.3%.
The softer inflation data revives the bets on Fed rate cuts this year, weighing on the Greenback. "The cooler inflation print was a sign for traders to cut some long positions in the dollar, said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FX Street in New York.
On the Loonie front, a rise in crude oil prices amid a large draw in U.S. crude stockpiles and potential supply disruptions caused by new United States (US) sanctions on Russia boosts the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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