EUR/USD falls below 1.0250 due to increased likelihood of Fed keeping rates steady
- EUR/USD depreciates as strong US labor data bolster expectations that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate levels.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 256K in December, exceeding expected 160K and November’s figure of 212K.
- Traders expect the ECB to implement four rate cuts, likely to be announced at each meeting leading up to summer.
EUR/USD attempts to halt its four-day losing streak, holding its position around 1.0240 during the Asian trading hours. However, the pair faced challenges as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following stronger-than-expected job growth in the United States (US) for December.
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on Friday, reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 256K in December, significantly exceeding market expectations of 160K and surpassing the revised November figure of 212K (previously reported as 227K).
Additionally, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. However, annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, dipped slightly to 3.9% from 4% in the prior reading.
The robust US labor market data for December will likely reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance to keep interest rates steady in January, supporting the Greenback against other currencies. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, financial markets anticipate the Fed will maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range during its January 28-29 meeting.
Additionally, the Euro (EUR) faces headwinds as traders anticipate four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which are expected to occur at each meeting by summer. ECB policymakers appear comfortable with these dovish expectations, as inflationary pressures in the Eurozone remain largely under control.
On Wednesday, ECB policymaker and Bank of France Governor François Villeroy noted that while price pressures were projected to rise slightly in December, interest rates would continue progressing toward the neutral rate “without a slowdown in the pace by summer,” provided upcoming data confirm that the “pullback in price pressures won’t persist.”
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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