NZD/USD drops to near 0.5800 due to the dovish mood surrounding the RBNZ policy outlook
- NZD/USD receives downward pressure as the RBNZ is highly expected to deliver a 50 basis point rate cut in November.
- The US Dollar Index rose to a fresh yearly high of 107.20 during the European session on Friday.
- Traders await the US S&P Global PMI data scheduled to be released in the North American session.
NZD/USD extends its losing streak for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5830 during the European hours on Friday. This downside of the NZD/USD pair is attributed to growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could deliver a bumper interest rate cut next week.
Markets are fully anticipating a 50 basis point cut in the RBNZ's cash rate to 4.25% at next week's monetary policy meeting, aligning with the reduction seen in October. Additionally, there is a 25% probability priced in for a more aggressive 75-basis-point cut.
On Thursday, New Zealand's Treasury Chief Economic Adviser, Dominick Stephens, indicated that economic and fiscal forecasts are likely to be revised downward, citing a prolonged slowdown in productivity.
Traders await the US S&P Global PMI data, set to be released later in the North American session. The US Manufacturing PMI for November is forecast to increase to 48.8 from 48.5, while the Services PMI is expected to rise to 55.3 from 55.0.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of major currencies, rises to a fresh yearly high of 107.20 during the European session on Friday. The US Dollar gains strength following the release of last week's Initial Jobless Claims data.
US Jobless Claims dropped to 213,000 for the week ending November 15, down from a revised 219,000 (previously 217,000) in the prior week and below the forecast of 220,000. This development has sparked speculation that the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts could slow.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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