EUR: Geopolitics and Trump threat weigh – ING

EUR/USD looks to have been buffeted by events in Ukraine this week. The war is going through a period of escalation as both sides seek to gain ground ahead of potential ceasefire discussions early next year, ING’s Chris Turner notes.  

The full range of doves and hawks speaking today

“That the Biden administration is providing more support before year-end warns of a more aggressive Russian response – a development which is weighing on European currencies and starting to show up in higher natural gas prices. Europe's gas inventories are now fractionally below their five-year average for this time of year. We all recall the spike in gas prices in 2022 and the damage they did to European currencies.”

“At the same time, we have the ECB publicly debating the potential inflationary impact of Trump's impending tariffs and what they mean to the easing cycle. Hawks think the tariff effects could be meaningful, but the doves disagree.”

“On today's agenda, we have the full range of doves and hawks speaking and collectively they perhaps will not move the needle on the 30bp of easing priced for the December ECB meeting. This leaves EUR:USD swap differentials very wide in the dollar's favour, and combined with the threat of some soft flash November PMI numbers across Europe, tomorrow should keep EUR/USD subdued in its 1.05-1.06 range today.”