GBP/USD snaps losing streak ahead of UK CPI inflation
- GBP/USD found a reprieve from recent bearish momentum.
- Cable snapped a six-day losing streak, recovering a scant half of a percent.
- UK CPI inflation figures due in the midweek market session.
GBP/USD climbed 0.5% on Monday, kicking off the fresh trading week with a bullish recovery that ended a six-day losing streak and paring back recent losses to send price action back toward the 1.2700 handle. Gains in Cable bids are owing more to a general easing in one-sided Greenback momentum than any intrinsic strength in the Pound Sterling, with GBP traders hunkering down for this week’s fresh update in UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures.
It was a quiet start to the trading week with a limited economic data docket on Monday. Markets twisted into risk appetite recovery mode, easing bullish pressures that have bolstered the US Dollar across the board in recent weeks.
The Bank of England (BoE) will warm up Cable action on Tuesday with the UK central bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report Hearings slated for Tuesday, but GBP traders will be focusing on Wednesday’s UK CPI print for October. Markets forecast annualized UK CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.2% YoY in October from the previous print of 1.7%, while core UK CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.2% YoY.
Markets are getting a nice breather from high-impact US economic data this week, though Cable traders will be keeping an eye out for Friday’s UK Retail Sales update, as well as S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures due on both sides of the pond to wrap up the trading week.
GBP/USD price forecast
The Pound Sterling dug in its heels and recovered a meager 0.5% on Monday, but cumulative losses still see Cable mired in bear country south of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2850.
GBP/USD tapped multi-month lows at the 1.2600 handle last Friday, in a complete reversal of the pair’s multi-year highs set in September of this year. The pair shed 6.25% top-to-bottom from September’s peak at 1.3434, and a near-term bullish bounce could see a fresh round of short positions collecting between 1.2700 and 1.2800.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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