USD/CAD holds steady above 1.4050, US Retail Sales data in focus
- USD/CAD trades on a flat note around 1.4060 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- Fed’s Powell said there is no need to hurry rate cuts as the US economy remains strong.
- The lower crude oil prices continue to undermine the Loonie.
The USD/CAD pair trades flat near 1.4060 amid the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Friday. The US October Retail Sales will be in the spotlight on Friday along with the Fedspeak.
The Greenback holds steady near the fresh 2024 highs despite Trump trades showing signs of slowing. The upside of the pair might be limited amid the cautious remarks from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the recent performance of the US economy has been “remarkably good,” giving the Fed room to lower interest rates at a careful pace.
Furthermore, Producer inflation in the US rose more than expected in September. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4% on a yearly basis in October. This figure followed the 1.9% rise seen in September (revised from 1.8%) and came in above the market expectation of 2.3%.
On the Loonie front, the decline in crude oil prices could weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the near term. It's worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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