EUR: Building risk premium – ING

The wide short-term swap rate spread between USD and EUR is justifying a good deal of the ongoing EUR/USD selloff. However, with other market factors added to estimating the near-term fair value of EUR/USD – such as equities and commodity prices – there are signs of a growing risk premium in excess of 1.5%. Does that imply a 1.5%+ correction higher in EUR/USD is due? Not necessarily, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD upside correction is plausible

“We strongly believe that since 5 November we have entered a phase where a euro-negative risk premium will become the new normal given the risks to the eurozone associated with Trump’s foreign/trade agenda. From that perspective, and looking at historical dynamics, a 1.5% risk premium would still be rather contained, as that can easily amount to 4%+ should markets price in more geopolitical and/or protectionism-related risks.”

“For now, we believe some sort of EUR/USD upside correction is plausible, but we still believe markets will take the opportunity to sell the rallies in the pair, and a long-lasting return above 1.070 does not seem likely.”

“Today’s eurozone calendar includes the first revision of 3Q EZ GDP and employment figures, as well as the minutes of the October ECB meeting. Those could include a few dovish hints, although markets may still want to see more evidence of a slowdown in data or a lower inflation print before pricing in a 50bp cut in December.”