Australian Dollar remains tepid following a lower Trade Balance, Trump’s victory
- The Australian Dollar struggles as the trade surplus fell to 4,609 million in September, against the expected 5,300 million.
- The Aussie Dollar may depreciate further as US Dollar receives support from Trump’s victory in the US election.
- US Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) for the second successive session on Thursday following the Trade Balance data. Additionally, the downside risks for the AUD/USD pair seem possible as the US Dollar (USD) appreciates following the victory of former President Donald Trump in the US election.
Australia’s trade surplus fell to 4,609 million in September, down from an expected 5,300 million and August’s figure of 5,284 million, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. This was the smallest trade surplus since March, driven by a larger drop in exports compared to imports.
Traders anticipate the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its November meeting on Thursday. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 98.1% probability that the Fed will make this quarter-point rate cut in November, showing strong market consensus for a modest reduction this week.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar receives downward pressure from Trump’s victory
- Australia's Exports fell by 4.3% in September from the 0.2% decline seen a month earlier. Meanwhile, Imports fell by 3.1% MoM in September, compared to a decrease of 0.2% seen in August.
- The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index increased to 56.0 in October, up from 54.9 in September, exceeding the forecast of 53.8. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI registered at 55.0 in October, slightly below the prior reading and the expected 55.3.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, marking its eighth consecutive pause. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy given persistent inflation risks and a strong labor market.
- Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI improved to 51.0 in October from 50.6 in the previous reading, above the market consensus of 50.6. The Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in October versus 49.8 prior. Caixin China Services PMI also rose to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September.
- The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October, up from a 0.1% increase in the prior month, marking the highest reading since July and ahead of the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge climbed by 3.0%, compared to the previous 2.6% reading.
- ANZ Australia Job Advertisements increased by 0.3% month-over-month in October, a notable slowdown from the upwardly revised 2.3% gain in September. Despite slower growth, this marks the second consecutive month of increases.
- China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday. China expressed hopes that Australia will continue enhancing its business environment and ensure fair and equitable treatment for Chinese companies.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers below 0.6600, nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair trades around 0.6570 on Thursday. The daily chart technical indicators indicate a possible continuation of the bearish trend. The pair is positioned below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating downward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains under 50, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
For the AUD/USD pair, immediate support is near the three-month low at 0.6512, followed by key psychological support at 0.6500.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may encounter resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6594, with further resistance at the 14-day EMA of 0.6612. A breakout above these levels could signal increasing momentum, potentially targeting the significant psychological level of 0.6700.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.17% | -0.25% | -0.20% | -0.32% | -0.25% | -0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | 0.17% | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.08% | 0.04% | -0.07% | -0.06% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.20% | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.06% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.16% | |
| NZD | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.06% | -0.06% | 0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | 0.15% | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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