NZD/USD loses ground more than 1% due to Trump trade rally
- NZD/USD falls as US Dollar receives support from Trump trade optimism.
- Exit polls indicate growing support for former President Trump’s bid to become the 47th President of the United States.
- New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate Q3 increased to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter.
NZD/USD depreciates by more than 1% as the US Dollar (USD) rises due to a Trump trade rally sparked by the favorable results for the Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election. The pair trades around 0.5930 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
As exit polls indicate growing support for former President Trump’s bid to become the 47th President of the United States (US), the market sentiment shifts in favor of the US Dollar, undermining the NZD/USD pair.
Early exit poll results from Wisconsin indicate a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 56% of the vote compared to 42.5%, based on 7.5% of expected votes counted. In North Carolina, exit polls show a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with 50% of the votes counted. In Michigan, with 12% of votes counted, Harris' lead has shrunk from 61% to 53%.
Follow our live coverage: Trump or Harris? Who will be the 47th President of the US and how will markets react?
On Wednesday, Stats NZ released the Unemployment Rate for the third quarter (Q3) of New Zealand, which rose to 4.8% from 4.6% in the second quarter. This figure was below the market consensus of 5.0% for the period. The Employment Change rate declined by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and by 0.8% year-on-year in Q3.
Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 75 basis points (bps) as part of its easing cycle, which began in August. Markets are anticipating another 50 bps reduction at the final policy decision of the year on November 27, bringing the OCR down to 4.25%.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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