AUD/JPY rises to near 101.00 due to hawkish mood surrounding the RBA
- AUD/JPY extends its gains as traders expect the RBA to maintain current interest rates in 2024.
- The Australian Dollar gains support as China's recent rate cuts may boost demand for Australian exports.
- The subdued Japanese Yen could heighten market concerns, possibly leading to another intervention by Japanese authorities.
AUD/JPY continues to gain ground for the second successive session, hovering around 100.90 during the European trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support from hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its policy outlook, bolstered by positive employment data released last week.
The Employment Change surged by 64.1K in September, bringing the total employment to a record 14.52 million. This far surpassed market expectations of a 25.0K increase, following a revised rise of 42.6K in the previous month.
Additionally, the AUD found support from China's recent rate cuts, given that China remains Australia’s largest trading partner. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.10% from 3.35% and the 5-year LPR to 3.60% from 3.85%, in line with expectations. Lower borrowing costs are anticipated to stimulate China's domestic economic activity, potentially increasing demand for Australian exports.
The weakening Japanese Yen (JPY) may fuel market fears, potentially triggering another intervention by Japanese authorities. However, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Kazuhiko Aoki, declined to comment on currency movements on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi acknowledged both the positive and negative aspects of the Yen’s fluctuations.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Executive Director Takashi Kato stated that the BoJ is not targeting specific FX levels but is closely monitoring upside risks from rising import costs. Kato also emphasized the need to carefully assess the US economy, upcoming elections, and Federal Reserve policy.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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