EUR: Trying to recover a tough week – ING

EUR/USD is licking its wounds after a tough week, ING’s Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD to stay relatively offered in a 1.08-1.09 range

“Two key drivers have been: a) the market's repricing of a potential Trump victory presaging a potentially tariff-inflicted period for world trade, and b) European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde throwing more fuel on the dovish bonfire with her press conference last Thursday.”

“With two-year EUR:USD swap differentials now very wide at 141bp and weighing on EUR/USD, there will be much focus on the ECB speakers in Washington this week. Here, we'd pick out Lagrade speaking to Bloomberg TV tomorrow and Chief Economist Philip Lane speaking on Wednesday.” 

“Thursday's release of PMIs across the Eurozone region will also be crucial to EUR/USD this week. Lagarde surprised some last Thursday by elevating the importance of the PMIs in ECB decision-making. Unless there is a miraculous recovery in these (which seems unlikely), EUR/USD should stay relatively offered in a 1.08-1.09 range.”