Don't bet against the US consumer – Commerzbank

After EUR/USD showed almost no imminent reaction to the ECB statement yesterday, the US retail sales figures, which were published shortly afterwards, were more capable to cause a stir, before the ECB press conference took over, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

USD should remain strong

“The figures were stronger than expected, while at the same time jobless claims surprisingly fell, partially offsetting the previous week's surprisingly strong increase. The US dollar benefited somewhat from this, with EUR/USD now flirting with 1.08 rather than higher levels.”

“This once again confirms the story of recent weeks: US retail sales have been rising at a faster pace for several months now, raising doubts that US growth will slow down any time soon. At the moment, I am a little short of ideas as to what could cause USD weakness in the coming days.”

“There is simply a lack of hard data that could cast doubt on the current moves. As long as this is the case, the USD should remain strong.”