Australian Dollar declines as investors await labor data
- AUD/USD fell on Wednesday, reaching five-week lows below 0.6700.
- Markets await key employment figures from Australia in Thursday’s session.
- A stronger USD, worries from the Chinese economic situation and falling metal prices are pushing down the Aussie.
The AUD/USD continued its downtrend on Wednesday, declining by 0.60% to 0.6662, marking a five-week low. The pair breached the crucial 0.6700 support level, potentially leading to a test of the 200-day SMA at 0.6625. The outcome of local employment figures to be released on Thursday will also set the pace of the Aussie’s dynamics.
Despite a mixed economic outlook for Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) focus on combating high inflation has tempered market expectations. As a result, the markets now anticipate only a modest 0.25% interest rate cut in 2024. If employment data comes in weak, markets might place bets on another cut.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar declines after breaking key support, employment figures ahead
- AUD/USD breaks below key support at 0.6700 on USD's recovery as traders doubt China's stimulus efforts.
- China's latest press conference raises uncertainty over stimulus plan's scope and impact.
- Markets only anticipate 50% chance of RBA rate cut by year-end, potentially aiding AUDUSD recovery.
- On Thursday, investors will eye Employment Change and Participation rate figures from September from Australia, which are expected to show weakness in the labor market.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Bearish momentum rising, support at 0.6700 gone
The AUD/USD pair is currently trading in a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the oversold area, suggesting that selling pressure is intense but soon to potentially pause for consolidation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also rising, indicating that the overall outlook is bearish.
Support levels include 0.6660, 0.6650 and 0.6630, while resistance levels lie at 0.6700, 0.6730and 0.6750.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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