Mexican Peso rallies as Fed rate cut bets weaken the US Dollar
- Mexican Peso strengthens for the second consecutive day as traders increase the odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut to 85.9%.
- Banxico minutes confirm economic slowdown, reinforcing the view that less restrictive policy is needed as Mexican industrial production contracts.
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) data supports disinflation, while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment weakens, and inflation expectations rise.
The Mexican Peso registers gains against the Greenback for the second consecutive day after hitting a low of 19.61 in early trading on Thursday. A tranche of economic data in the United States (US) reassured investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might lower borrowing costs at the November meeting, a headwind for the US Dollar. Therefore, the USD/MXN trades at 19.38, down 0.38%.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that prices paid by producers came in around estimates, indicating that the disinflation process is evolving. Lately, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment showed signs of deterioration, while inflation expectations over the next year increased for the first time in five months.
The USD/MXN extended its losses as data from the CME FedWatch Tool showed that traders had increased the odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut to 85.9%, while the chances of the Fed keeping rates unchanged are 14.1%.
Across the south of the border, the Mexican economic docket revealed that Industrial Production contracted in monthly and annual figures, painting a gloomy economic outlook.
The minutes of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) showed that the economy is undergoing a slowdown, losing some pace since the last quarter of 2023. This, along with the evolution of the disinflation process in Mexico, is one of the two reasons Banxico mentioned that policy needs to be less restrictive.
In the meantime, Chicago Fed President Austal Goolsbee crossed the newswires. He said he doesn’t see evidence of the economy overheating and that the central bank should focus on the dual mandate.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, is virtually unchanged at 102.84, capping the USD/MXN advance on Friday.
Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso bolstered due to soft US data
- Mexico’s Industrial Production in August plunged -0.5% MoM, missed the forecast, and July’s 0.2% increase. In the 12 months to August, production plummeted -0.9% below the 0.5% expansion awaited by the consensus.
- The Mexican Peso shrugged off the data and continued to rally due to the reduction of interest rate differentials between Mexico and the United States.
- According to Banxico’s poll, the central bank is projected to lower rates by 50 bps to 10% for the remainder of 2024. Meanwhile, the USD/MXN exchange rate will end near 19.69.
- Mexico’s economy is projected to grow by 1.45% in 2024, lower than August’s 1.57%.
- The September US Producer Price Index (PPI) came at 1.8% YoY, which was higher than the expected 1.6% but lower than August’s 1.9%. Core PPI rose by 2.8% YoY, above forecasts and September’s figures of 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively.
- PPI every month was 0%, lower than the estimated 0.1% and beneath August’s 0.2%. Core PPI ticked lower, as expected, to 0.2%, down from last month's 0.3%.
- The UoM Consumer Sentiment deteriorated from 70.1 to 68.9, below expectations of 70.8. Inflation expectations for one year were revised from 2.7% to 2.9%.
- Friday’s slightly higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a soft US employment report could lead to additional Fed rate cuts.
- Data from the Chicago Board of Trade via the December fed funds rate futures contract shows investors estimate 49 bps of easing by the Fed toward the end of 2024.
USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso counter attacks as USD/MXN falls below 19.35
The USD/MXN uptrend remains in place, but it could consolidate within the 19.00-19.50 area. Momentum shows that sellers remain in charge as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) depicts.
In that outcome, if USD/MXN drops below the October 4 wing low of 19.10, the 19.00 figure will be exposed. Once broken, the next support would be the 100-day SMA at 18.64.
Conversely, if buyers stepped in and pushed the exchange rate above 19.50, this could pave the way for testing the October 1 daily high of 19.82, ahead of 20.00. Up next would be the YTD peak of 20.22.
Mexican Peso FAQs
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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