GBP/JPY tumbles below 192.00 as Shigeru Ishiba wins LDP leadership race run-off
- GBP/JPY attracts some sellers to 191.85 in Friday’s early European session.
- Former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba won the LDP leadership race run-off and will be Japan's next prime minister.
- The BoE is expected to deliver another interest rate cut in any of its two policy meetings remaining this year.
The GBP/JPY cross faces some selling pressure to around 191.85, snapping the three-day winning streak during the early European session on Friday. The winning of former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba in the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership race run-off boosts the Japanese Yen (JPY) and creates a headwind for the cross.
Japan’s ruling party holds its leadership election on Friday and the former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba won the LDP leadership race run-off. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains traction in an immediate reaction to the outcome as Ishiba received 215 votes in the run-off while Sanae Takaich only got 194 votes.
The Tokyo core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.0% in September from the previous year, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed Friday. This figure matched the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) target and the median market forecast. The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.2% YoY in September, compared to a 2.6% rise in August. The Tokyo CPI inflation data indicates the Japanese economy is making progress in meeting the criteria for further interest rate hikes, which further boosts the JPY.
On the other hand, the dovish comments from the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey might weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP). Bailey stated that the UK central bank should be able to lower interest rates gradually as it gains confidence that inflation will remain close to its 2% target. Economists expect the BoE to deliver one interest rate cut in any of its two policy meetings remaining this year.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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