USD/JPY Price Prediction: Bouncing from close to August 5 lows
Source Fxstreet
- USD/JPY is rebounding from key support near the August 5 lows.
- It is forming a bullish candlestick although it is not possible to be certain until the current 4-hour period ends.
- The trend remains bearish although a correction higher looks likely.
USD/JPY has fallen close to the August 5 lows and bounced. It is forming a large, bullish Hammer Japanese candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart – if the current period ends with the pattern intact it could signal the start of a substantial pull-back or correction higher.
USD/JPY 4-hour Chart
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has exited oversold, giving a buy signal and indicating a greater chance of a counter-trend correction evolving. The RSI has also itself formed a double bottom pattern when looking at the previous time it was oversold on September 4. This is further evidence strengthening the case for a bullish reaction.
The short-term trend remains down, however, and it is too early to be sure that the pair is reversing the trend fully. The correction higher could soon run out of steam, leading the pair to recapitulate and start falling in line with the trend. It is a major tenet of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” and the odds favor a continuation lower.
However, it would require a break below the August 5 lows at 141.69 to confirm a continuation lower. Such a move would probably then fall to support at 140.44 initially, the December 2023 lows.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
【Daily Brief】The dollar ground higher for six days — and the AUD fell 2% in the very week the RBA hiked to a 15-year highThe dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.
The dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Related Instrument
