AUD/JPY is back in fashion – Societe Generale

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to find support in solid data, this morning in the form of retail sales, Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes notes.

AUD/JPY draws attention of the market

“The front end of the curve now prices a 50% chance of another rate hike this year and the Australian/US 2y yield differential is wider than it was at the start of the year (when AUD/USD was above 0.68).”

“The more fashionable trade today, however, may be to buy AUD/JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) bears are talking of the BoJ’s next line in the sand being at USD/JPY 6, though most of them simply think that as long as yield differentials are huge, the yen can just keep on falling.”

“I can’t see the yen turning around until Fed easing is in view, and AUD/JPY has now broken above the 2007 peak and is back at levels last spotted in 1991.”