Raymond James upgrades timber REITs on improving lumber market fundamentals

Investing.com -- Raymond James upgraded timber-focused REITs Weyerhaeuser Company (NYSE:WY) and PotlatchDeltic Corp (NASDAQ:PCH) to "outperform" from "market perform" given their discounted valuations and signs of recovery in lumber market fundamentals.

The brokerage highlighted a near-30% discount to net asset value for both companies and a 12% quarter-on-quarter rise in cash lumber prices in the fourth quarter. It also noted improved conditions in the lumber and oriented strand board markets as producers reduced capacity amid demand headwinds.

“We think the market might be throwing the baby out with the bath water in this circumstance, as the lumber markets are beginning to act decidedly more positive heading into 2025,” Raymond (NS:RYMD) James analysts said, suggesting that a seasonal bottom in pricing appeared to have formed.

Brokerage expressed confidence in U.S. homebuilders' plans for mid-to-high single-digit growth in housing completions next year, despite elevated mortgage rates. Additionally, potential trade policy changes, including higher tariffs on Canadian lumber imports, could provide further support for domestic pricing.

Raymond James maintained its "market perform" rating on Rayonier Inc (NYSE:RYN), citing short-term uncertainties tied to its upcoming stock dividend distribution.

The timber REIT sector has faced pressure from muted demand, but capacity reductions totaling over 10% of North American lumber production this year, along with stabilizing housing demand, signal potential recovery.