UBS downgrades steel stocks citing less compelling risk-reward post rally

Investing.com -- UBS downgraded Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ:STLD), and Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC), citing less compelling risk-reward dynamics following a strong rally in their shares.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics were cut to "neutral" from "buy," while Commercial Metals was downgraded to "sell."

UBS pointed to weak third-quarter earnings, disappointing fourth-quarter guidance, and continued pricing and demand pressures as key factors.

The U.S. steel sector had rallied in anticipation of trade protection policies but faces challenges from declining shipments and softer steel pricing. UBS expects a recovery in demand and prices into 2025 but warns that risks remain, particularly for first-quarter estimates.

Commercial Metals’ downgrade reflects its retention of post-election gains despite a $330 million court ruling and a reduced outlook for rebar demand.

UBS has given price targets at $149 for Steel Dynamics, $156 for Nucor, and $56 for Commercial Metals.

“We still think 2025 will show an improving demand trend off a low base, but a higher yield curve post Trump's win is likely to be a headwind to new construction project approvals,” analyst wrote.