Black Friday 2024: here are the winners and losers according to BMO

Investing.com -- Retailers saw a mixed bag of results this Black Friday weekend, as consumer spending remained resilient despite ongoing macroeconomic concerns. However, the gap between winners and losers continues to grow, with notable divergences in how brands performed compared to their initial expectations, BMO note says.

Brands that started their Black Friday sales early this year, such as GAP, The North Face, and Anthropologie, deepened promotions as the weekend progressed. This shift suggested underperformance against initial sales targets.

In contrast, brands like ULTA, Anthropologie, and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) reported strong sales and inventory turnover, indicating healthy demand.

Notably, companies that are seen as "expensive for a reason" such as TJX (NYSE:TJX), which is known for its consistent performance, continue to show resilience. Nike (NYSE:NKE) could see expanded market share as investors warm up to its leadership under Elliot. Meanwhile, the collaboration between Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) and Disney (NYSE:DIS) is expected to provide near-term gains, though long-term concerns remain.

Among the losers, Coach (NYSE:TPR) and Michael Kors (NYSE:CPRI) saw weaker sales compared to last year, especially in the handbag category, although there was some improvement relative to quarterly trends. Other brands, such as Under Armour (NYSE:UA) and Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON), are viewed as undergoing sales-independent turnarounds, though their recovery is still in progress.

Retail promotions varied widely this year, with some brands like Revolve, Vans, and Nike offering significant discounts, while others like Michael Kors saw less aggressive pricing.

Despite some challenges, the overall Black Friday weekend showed a record in online spending, with early holiday sales driving consumer engagement.

With holiday promotions running earlier and deeper, investors are now faced with a choice: absorb the risk of high multiples with high-quality brands, or take on the risk of turnarounds that may take longer to materialize.

The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with select names like TJX and Nike positioned to continue thriving as consumer demand proves resilient.