Tesla stock: What will it take to turn Elon Musk's DREAMS into reality?

Investing.com -- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)'s long-term potential as an AI powerhouse might be closer than ever, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).

The investment bank said in a note Tuesday that it believes the development of Generative AI (Gen AI) and Large Language Models (LLMs) could be the "great unlock" for Tesla's value, particularly in monetizing its AI capabilities.

When assessing the question regarding what it will take to make Elon Musk's ambitious dreams a reality, Morgan Stanley highlighted Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10th, which it sees as a possible catalyst for shifting the narrative around Tesla shares, currently trading nearly 40% below their all-time highs.

According to Morgan Stanley, Tesla's stock performance has been largely tied to its automotive business, which still accounts for over 80% of its forecasted FY24 revenues.

"Easily 90% of incoming client questions are focused on short-term auto-related data (such as 3Q deliveries)," the analysts note.

However, the bank says that as Musk continues to build Tesla's AI and compute infrastructure—especially with the integration of xAI, his new AI venture—investors may begin to see the broader "surface area" between Tesla and other parts of Musk's broader ecosystem, or "Muskonomy."

This includes cars, robots, and other AI-driven technologies.

Morgan Stanley, which has an Overweight rating on Tesla, breaks down its $310 price target for the stock into six components. The core Tesla Auto business is valued at $59 per share, based on an expectation of 5.4 million units sold in 2030.

Tesla's mobility business, including autonomous driving, is estimated at $62 per share. The energy business contributes $49 per share, while Tesla's third-party supplier business and insurance add $40 and $5 per share, respectively.

The largest growth potential, however, comes from Tesla's network services, which Morgan Stanley estimates could reach $96 per share by 2030, driven by 14.3 million monthly active users and $180 average revenue per user (ARPU).