Wall Street 'too conservative' on McDonald's: Jefferies

Investing.com -- Jefferies analysts believe Wall Street is underestimating McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) potential in the third quarter, suggesting that current projections for U.S. same-store sales (SSS) are too conservative.

According to the firm in a note Monday, foot traffic data through August indicates that McDonald's could outperform the Street's estimate.

"We think a greater focus on value (marketing) is starting to work more meaningfully and drive traffic sooner than expected," said Jefferies, noting the McDonald's $5 meal deal, which has driven traffic sooner than anticipated.

They explain that foot traffic data from Placer.ai shows that while McDonald's U.S. traffic was flat to 1% in early July, it improved to a 3% average from mid-July through mid-August.

The firm notes that "foot traffic data through August averaging >3% vs. flat in 2Q, suggesting upside to the current Street estimate of -0.6% for US SSS."

Jefferies also highlights that the August 13 launch of the Collector's Edition cups led to a temporary spike in foot traffic, underscoring McDonald's strong customer affinity and the effectiveness of its marketing efforts.

This marketing prowess, combined with other value-oriented promotions and improvements in food quality and delivery, is said to position McDonald's well to navigate a competitive and promotional environment.

Despite the positive foot traffic data, Wall Street is projecting a -0.6% SSS for the third quarter, consistent with the -0.7% from the second quarter, even though the third quarter faces an easier year-over-year comparison.

Jefferies believes this outlook is too pessimistic, pointing out that their own model predicts -1.0% for the third quarter but acknowledges potential upside.

The firm anticipates a return to positive SSS in the fourth quarter, forecasting +1.0% compared to the Street's +0.8%.

Jefferies maintained a Buy rating on McDonald's, with a price target of $330.