NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hits fresh YTD top, bulls flirt with 200-day SMA near 0.5900
NZD/USD scales higher for the fourth successive day on Monday amid sustained USD selling.
The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for further appreciation.
Corrective slides towards 0.5800 could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.
The NZD/USD pair is seen building on last week's solid recovery from the 0.5485 region, or its lowest level since March 2020, and gaining strong follow-through positive traction for the fourth successive day on Monday. The buying interest remains unabated through the first half of the European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and lifts spot prices to the 0.5900 neighborhood, or a fresh year-to-date high.
The aforementioned handle represents a confluence hurdle comprising a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a multi-month-old ascending trend-line. Meanwhile, an intraday breakout above the 0.5825-0.5830 region, or the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the September 2024-April 2025 downfall could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside.
That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained breakout and acceptance above the 0.5900 mark before positioning for further gains. Spot prices might then surpass the 50% Fibo. level, around the 0.5930-0.5935 region, and climb further towards the 0.6000 psychological mark en route to the 0.6035-0.6040 area, or the 61.8% Fibo. level. The subsequent move up will suggest that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.
On the flip side, any corrective pullback now seems to find decent support near the 0.5825-0.5830 region (38.2% Fibo. level). This is followed by the 0.5800 mark, which if broken decisively might prompt some technical selling and drag the NZD/USD pair to the 0.5765-0.5760 intermediate support en route to the 0.5700 round figure, or the 23.6% Fibo. level. The latter should act as a key pivotal point and strong base for spot prices. A convincing break below, however, might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.
NZD/USD daily chart
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