GBP/USD climbed 0.6% on Tuesday as tariff threats ease.
President Trump’s trade war threats are fading into the background.
Data remains mid-tier until BoE’s rate call on Thursday and Friday’s US NFP.
GBP/USD continued to grind higher on Tuesday, extending a recovery after the week’s early plunge on trade war concerns sparked by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping threats to impose stiff tariffs on his own constituents in an effort to punish some of the US’ closest trade allies. Tariffs, which were supposed to go into effect on Tuesday, have been kicked down the road another 30 days, marking President Trump’s third consecutive walk back of his own threats as he secures concessions that were largely already given to the previous administration.
The midweek session will be a thin affair on the economic data docket with geopolitical headlines fading into background noise as investors tune out President Trump’s long-winded diatribe of perceived grievances. Even if his tariff talk had a chance of materializing, the UK is unlikely to draw any specific trade ire from Donald Trump.
US ADP Employment Change figures are due on Wednesday, but the janky figure is unlikely to spark much momentum. US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity survey results for January are also expected, but the figure is forecast to shift to 54.3 from 54.1. The key US print this week will be Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, slated to ease to 170K from 256K.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming rate call on Thursday is broadly expected to deliver a quarter point cut to markets. With the US Federal Reserve (Fed) firmly embedded in a wait-and-see stance over inconsistent US policy, Cable’s interest rate differential is set to widen slightly this week, capping bullish potential.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD climbed a little over six-tenths of one percent, clawing back to 1.2480, but the pair still remains capped below the 1.2500 handle as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) weighs on near-term price action.
A successful break to the upside could send Cable bids back into the 200-day EMA at 1.2700, but a return to recent lows near 1.2100 is also on the cards as price action wastes a bullish turnaround in the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) oscillator.
GBP/USD daily chart
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