The Australian Dollar edges lower in Tuesday's early Asian session.
Renewed USD demand and Trump’s tariff threats weigh on the pair; hawkish expectations of the RBA might cap its downside.
Investors brace for the US October JOLTs Job Openings and Fedspeak on Tuesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its downside to near 0.6470 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The stronger US Dollar (USD) to the three-day highs drags the pair lower. Additionally, the eruption of a global trade war under returning US President-elect Donald Trump could exert some selling pressure on the Aussie.
Nonetheless, the hawkish comments by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock might help limit the AUD’s losses. The RBA Governor Bullock said last week that the core inflation remains too high to consider near-term interest rate cuts, which increased the demand for the AUD. Later on Tuesday, the US JOLTs Job Openings for October will be published. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Adriana Kugler and Austan Goolsbee are set to speak. The Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) will be closely watched on Wednesday.
Australian Dollar softens amid Trump’s tariff threats
Australia’s Retail Sales climbed by 0.6% MoM in October, compared to a rise of 0.1% in September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday. The reading was above the estimations of a 0.3% growth.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November versus 46.5 in prior. This reading came in stronger than the market expectation of 47.5.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he’s undecided on whether a rate cut is needed in the December meeting but still believes Fed officials should continue lowering rates over the coming months, per Bloomberg.
New York Fed President John Williams stated on Monday that the Fed officials will likely need to cut the interest rates further to move policy to a neutral stance now that risks to inflation and employment have become more balanced.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that he was leaning toward supporting an interest rate cut at the December meeting amid expectations for inflation to continue to ease toward the Fed's 2% target.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar’s negative trend continues
The Australian Dollar weakens on the day. The AUD/USD pair remains in a downtrend on the daily chart, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the 50-midline, supporting the sellers in the near term.
Bearish candlesticks below 0.6434, the low of November 26, may attract Aussie bears and drag AUD/USD to the lower limit of the descending trend channel of 0.6330. Extended losses could see a drop to 0.6285, the low of October 3, 2023.
On the other hand, sustained trading above the upper boundary of the trend channel of 0.6530 could set the pair to 0.6626, the 100-day EMA. Bullish candlesticks above this level could pave the way to 0.6687, the high of November 7.
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