EUR/USD poised for a bullish breakout?

EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, but still capped by recent congestion.

Market sentiment was knocked off-balance by US consumer sentiment figures.

Investors are still holding on for key US inflation figures, and another Trump pivot.

The EUR/USD pair saw a rally on Tuesday, increasing by half a percent and surpassing 1.0500 as Fiber confronts a significant technical hurdle for the eighth consecutive day. US consumer sentiment fell in February, intensifying concerns about an economic slowdown. Additionally, President Donald Trump has reiterated his plans to enforce hefty import taxes on American citizens, which serve as a trade war threat to the US's closest trade partners.

Forex Today: Concerns over the US economy are picking up pace

Despite the decline in consumer sentiment, primarily influenced by concerns over Trump’s tariff policies, the Cable showed resilience on Tuesday. Even with Trump’s ongoing trade war maneuvers, the market remains optimistic that he might find a last-minute excuse to defer his tariff threats.

Wednesday presents a sparse economic data schedule for both the US and EU, but the focus is shifting toward Thursday's expected release of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The week will conclude with Friday’s update on US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, a crucial report that investors believe will indicate whether the recent spike in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will affect core inflation figures.

EUR/USD price forecast

EUR/USD is holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0440, but only just. Bidding momentum remains limited and has yet to reclaim the 1.0550 level, though the pair is holding well above mid-January’s swing low into the 1.0200 handle. 

Even if bidders successfully wrestle Fiber price action back above 1.0550, the 200-day EMA is descending below 1.0650 and represents a hard technical barrier to an extended bull run.

EUR/USD daily chart