US Exchanges Are Regaining Bitcoin Volume Dominance: What Happened Last Time

On-chain data shows the US-based exchanges have seen a reversal in their Bitcoin volume dominance. Here’s what this trend led to last time.

Bitcoin US Vs Off-Shore Ratio Has Been Rising Recently

As pointed out by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, the US vs. Off-Shore Ratio is currently showing a reversal. The “US vs. Off-Shore Ratio” keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin volume involved in trades on the American platforms and that on the foreign ones.

When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the US-based exchanges are dominating in terms of volume compared to the rest of the world. On the other hand, it being under the mark suggests off-shore platforms are witnessing a higher amount of trading activity.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Bitcoin US vs Off-Shore Ratio over the last few years:

As is visible in the above graph, the US vs. Off-Shore Ratio witnessed a sharp increase in 2023 and broke above the 1 level, signaling the return of dominance from the US-based exchanges. It has since remained in this region, with a second leg up occurring in the second half of last year.

While the indicator continued the trend from last year and observed a rise to an even higher peak in January, it has since noted a sharp reversal. Though, despite the drop, its value continues to be above the 1 mark, which suggests American platforms are still the dominant ones in Bitcoin volume, albeit to a much smaller degree.

From the chart, it’s apparent that very recently, the Bitcoin US vs. Off-Shore Ratio has shown early signs of another turnaround, as its value has marked a small improvement.

In the graph, the analyst has highlighted the previous instance of the indicator witnessing such a reversal. This last turnaround, which came when the asset was trading around $60,000, led into a rally that took the price to new highs.

Something that’s still missing for the indicator’s reversal at present to be confirmed is the trend in the 90-day and 365-day simple moving averages (SMAs). During the previous turnaround, the two lines observed a crossover.

Recently, these SMAs have been approaching each other, so it’s possible that another crossover may be coming soon. Going by the previous trend, the increase in activity on the American exchanges could once again prove to be bullish for Bitcoin. As of now, though, the crossover hasn’t been confirmed.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $84,000, up more than 10% in the last seven days.