Bitcoin and altcoins are entering a pivotal week of trading as they face several macro catalysts this week, with inflation data, Federal Reserve testimony, trade policy announcements by US President Donald Trump.
#1 Bitcoin And Altcoins Await The CPI Release (Wednesday)
The first key factor arrives on Wednesday, February 12, 2025, at 8:30 AM EST (13:30 UTC), when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is released. Analysts expect headline CPI to climb by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.9% year-over-year, while core CPI excluding volatile categories is forecast to show a monthly rise of 0.2% and an annual increase of 3.2%.
The Federal Reserve’s inflation target remains at 2%, meaning these figures, particularly the 3.2% core rate, could bolster the argument that further policy tightening or extended higher rates are needed. Shelter costs are expected to increase 0.3% from December, translating to a 4.6% rise compared to January 2024, and energy prices are predicted to surge by 2.6% in January alone, with a 4.4% jump in gasoline standing out as a notable contributor.
Services prices excluding rents are expected to rise 4% year-over-year, marking the slowest pace in almost a year, yet still well above the central bank’s long-term comfort level. Any sizable deviation from these projections could trigger heightened volatility, as stronger-than-anticipated inflation pressures often translate into higher bond yields and reduced risk appetite, a scenario that can weigh on Bitcoin and altcoins.
#2 PPI (Thursday)
Thursday, February 13, 2025, brings another round of inflation data at the same 8:30 AM EST release time, this time in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January. Expectations center on a 0.2% monthly gain for headline PPI, with a 1.8% year-over-year increase, while the core reading, which excludes foods, energy, and trade services, is anticipated to nudge 0.1% higher from December and 2.1% above the same month last year.
Within the headline data, final demand goods are forecast to jump by 0.6% due to a 4.5% monthly spike in energy prices, driven by a 5.8% surge in gasoline. Food prices are projected to dip 0.2% from December, hinting at a brief respite after prior volatility.
Any upside surprise in the PPI figures, especially if the core reading surpasses expectations, could reinforce the view that inflation is sticking at elevated levels and might persuade the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at restrictive settings longer than the market would prefer. Because PPI measures price changes at the production stage, traders often interpret its trends as an early indicator for future consumer-level inflation, which in turn can have a meaningful impact on crypto sentiment.
#3 Jerome Powell Testifies (Tuesday And Wednesday)
The Federal Reserve itself will be front and center on Tuesday, February 11, and Wednesday, February 12, when Chairman Jerome Powell delivers back-to-back days of testimony to congressional committees. Many market participants expect him to maintain the cautious tone he projected at the January FOMC meeting, though analysts at Deutsche Bank have noted that “He will likely stick to the January FOMC script but the market always seems to get something new out of these appearances, which include a lot of congressional Q&A.”
Any hint of a policy pivot or an extended pause could be supportive for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, which tend to draw strength from looser monetary conditions. Conversely, if Powell strikes a more hawkish posture, emphasizing the importance of taming inflation even at the risk of slower growth, there could be renewed selling pressure in Bitcoin and altcoins.
#4 Trump’s Tariffs (Monday)
On Monday, markets will parse US President Donald Trump’s latest plan to shift from broad tariffs to “reciprocal tariffs,” a policy that involves matching the duties other nations impose on American goods. Trump’s tariffs have been quite aggressive, with a 25% tariff imposed on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
These tariffs still raise concerns about inflation, since higher import costs can translate into rising prices domestically and limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. Each time such tariffs have been introduced or teased, Bitcoin and crypto prices have tended to drop, with investors citing higher inflation risks and the resulting potential for tighter monetary policy as reasons to rotate away from crypto and into less volatile assets.
#5 Coinbase Earnings Call (Thursday)
To cap off a busy week, Coinbase will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on Thursday, February 13, 2025, at 5:30 PM ET. The company’s Q3 2024 results missed both revenue and earnings estimates, so renewed investor confidence may hinge on Coinbase delivering an upside surprise in transaction revenue and subscription and services income.
During Q4 2024, Bitcoin and Ethereum enjoyed strong rallies, jumping by 48% and 28%, respectively, which has been partly attributed to Trump’s presidential win and the accompanying hopes for more favorable crypto regulations. Such price moves often spur higher retail trading activity, a dynamic that historically boosts Coinbase’s fee-based revenue.
At press time, BTC traded at $97,770.
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