Crude Oil retraces on concerns of dislocation between supply and demand in US market

• Crude Oil edges lower due to concerns that the US Oil market might be glutted. 

• Headlines risk in Russia and Ukraine point to further escalation. 

• The US Dollar Index recovers from Monday’s low amid safe-haven inflows. 

Crude Oil price slides lower on Tuesday after a key gauge on the US Crude market signaling a substantial glut taking place for the first time in nine months. The spread in price between Oil futures contracts for immediate deliveries against those a month later is trading negatively for the first time since February and is an important sign of a bearish market outlook as it suggests sellers need to lower their prices in order to get rid of their inventory by the time the next supply comes in.  

The US Dollar Index (DXY) pares back Monday’s losses, driven by headlines of risk in Ukraine and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree approving changes to Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, allowing the usage of nuclear weapons in Ukraine should the country target Russian installations within Russian borders. Ukraine, meanwhile, has pressed ahead and has launched its first ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles into Russia, Bloomberg reports, citing local sources. This triggered some safe-haven inflows into the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $68.89 and Brent Crude at $72.87

Oil news and market movers: US market surplus

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that for 2025, a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day will be taking place, Bloomberg reports. 

Physical prices of WTI Midland at the Magellan East Houston rose to the highest since the end of September after Kazakhstan and Norway shut production for unplanned repairs, Bloomberg reports. 

The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release its weekly Crude stockpile change numbers for the week ending November 15. The forecast is for a build of 0.8 million barrels against the drawdown of 0.777 million the previous week. 

Oil Technical Analysis: Stalling ahead of target

Crude Oil price is ticking lower on Tuesday, with the previous day’s brief spark stalling ahead of the first cap on the topside at $70.05. While concerns about China persist, threats on US supply arising now in the futures market just add to more bearish news. The risk of more downside is thus greater than the upside when looking at the fundamentals and ignoring the turn of events between Russia and Ukraine. 

On the upside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.05 is the first barrier to consider before the hefty technical level at $73.17, which aligns with the 100-day SMA. The 200-day SMA at $76.56 is still quite far off, although it could be tested if tensions intensify further. 

On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart